The propensity for people to evaluate the truthfulness of a claim or conclusion based on how convincing it seems to them rather than the quality of the supporting evidence is known as belief bias. In other words, regardless of what the underlying data indicates, belief bias often leads people to accept plausible arguments and reject improbable ones. In syllogisms, which are logical systems having two premises and a conclusion, the phrase “belief bias” is generally used to refer to the Belief Bias effect. When human reasoning skills fail, belief bias happens. It makes you rely more on preconceived notions than continue an argument to its logical conclusion. Given how uncannily natural it can appear in the moment, this cognitive error is both frequent and difficult to spot. Let us now try to study the effects of belief bias and ways to counter it.
3 Possibilities for Belief Bias
Logical procedures: In the study of cognitive psychology, the dual-process hypothesis of reasoning is particularly well-liked. According to cognitive psychologists, humans have two different neural pathways for reasoning, one intuitive (and more susceptible to belief bias) and the other more actively analytical.
Deeply held beliefs: When you are debating an issue you are extremely passionate about, you are much more prone to succumb to belief bias. Discussions about politics, religion, and ethics, for instance, might lead people to cling to their preconceived notions and opinions.
Arguments that are not clear: In some cases, the individual making the argument is to blame for the other person’s belief bias. People are more inclined to depend on prior assumptions and mental models to judge the viability of an argument when the premises are unclear.
How can belief bias affect how people make decisions?
Belief bias can affect a person’s ability to make decisions by causing them to reach a convincing but incorrect conclusion or to reject a true but absurd conclusion. Depending on whether the conclusion is accepted or rejected, the decision-maker will act in one of two ways. When a decision-maker lacks knowledge about the issue at hand, is emotionally invested in the issue, or both, belief bias may be extremely strong. In the first scenario, people would typically choose the claim that seems the most plausible, where the plausibility may be impacted by outside viewpoints such as those of experts, media, or friends and family. In the latter case, believability is influenced by emotions, leading to belief bias in favour of assertions that are consistent with one’s own beliefs, values, or moral principles.
What makes us employ belief bias? From where does belief bias originate?
It is most likely a result of our evolved reasoning techniques. Utilising prior knowledge or beliefs to evaluate validity when confronted with unknown events or information enables us to comprehend and react to that information with reasonable confidence – a benefit that enables us to be pragmatic and effective in casual, everyday contexts. Contrary to the “normative” formal reasoning utilised in academic areas, this kind of informal reasoning is “adaptive.”
Examples from many industries: How can Belief Bias explain consumer choices?
This would affect customers’ judgements of a product’s quality and their justifications for making a purchase decision. Quality of a product is a judgement, so how quality is communicated is crucial.
A customer’s evaluation of a product’s quality, which in turn influences their decision to purchase, is influenced by the product’s specifications, their prior exposure to commercials and outside opinions, as well as their personal scepticism or confidence in the product’s capacity to deliver. Depending on how a buyer initially saw the product, belief bias may influence them to buy or reject it.
How can communications make use of belief bias?
By making the assertion in a way that is universally relatable or applicable, such as in the form of an aphorism or a larger, more appealing phrase, messages that seek to assert that a product, service, or technique is of higher quality than its rivals might take advantage of the Belief Bias.
The allegation will set off belief bias and become more credible because it might sound familiar or make sense on that bigger scale. Due to this effect, the statement’s plausibility will also close logical holes in the supporting evidence. Visit the website of Newristics to know more about this concept.